McDonnell losing ground ... especially with women... Deeds leads with the ladies , 48 to 45%.
Three-peat: Three polls in row show significant upward trend for Deeds.
It should, the same voter patterns occurred for Creigh in the Va Dem primary and for Obama last September 2008.
Undecideds and Independents are flocking to the safety of Mr. Reliable , Creigh Deeds.
Probability of Deeds pulling off a win is growing... daily.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Sunday, September 20, 2009
McDonnell Lead Shrinks to 4 points, 51%-47%.
Race Now a Toss Up, Deeds has The Big Mo headed into October.
Race Now a Toss Up, Deeds has The Big Mo headed into October.
PRESS RELEASE FROM DEEDS CAMPAIGN:
WASHINGTON POST POLL SHOWS DEEDS SURGING IN RACE FOR GOVERNOR
Second poll in three days confirms stunning collapse for McDonnell as his social agenda takes its toll
ALEXANDRIA - A new statewide poll conducted by the Washington Post shows that Creigh Deeds has surged in the race for Governor over the past month, as more voters learn about Bob McDonnell’s socially divisive agenda and record.
According to the Washington Post, “The change among likely voters -- down from a 15-point margin in mid-August -- coincides with the publication and ensuing controversy surrounding McDonnell's graduate school thesis, in which he writes of his opposition to working women, feminists and gay people.”
The Washington Post poll comes on the heels of a new poll by Rasmussen Reports that shows Deeds surging to within two points of McDonnell, by a margin of 48-46%. Two weeks ago, McDonnell held a nine-point lead.
“These polls show what we’ve said all along. As people finally become focused on this race, they are seeing the stark differences between the candidates,” said Deeds campaign manager Joe Abbey. “People are moving towards Creigh because they trust him to keep Virginia moving forward. And they are moving away from Bob McDonnell because they know his social agenda is outside the mainstream and would take Virginia backwards.
“We have momentum, but we have a lot of work left to do,” Abbey said.
One problem Bob McDonnell has is credibility. The fact that he has both defended his writings as a 34-year-old student of law and politics at Pat Robertson’s CBN University and claimed that they no longer represent his views hasn’t helped. But an even bigger problem is fear over his agenda. Voters are beginning to understand that McDonnell spent nearly 20 years acting, voting and advocating a far-right social agenda to the near-exclusion of economic development, education, and job creation – issues that should be on the forefront of the next governor’s agenda.
Among the key findings of the Washington Post poll:
· Despite a barrage of negative attacks from McDonnell and his allies, Deeds’ vote has grown substantially. While there is growing concern about McDonnell among voters, most of the movement in this poll is a result of voters moving towards Deeds. His vote has grown eight points over the past month.
· There has been a 31-point swing among Independent women towards Deeds. According the Post, “In August, independent women favored McDonnell 59 to 31 percent; now they split 50 percent for Deeds to 47 percent for McDonnell.”
· McDonnell’s attempts to appear moderate are falling flat. The Post writes, “The percentage of likely voters who see McDonnell as "too conservative" has jumped 10 points since the August poll and corresponds with a double-digit increase in the number seeing Deeds as "just about right" ideologically. The percentage of independent female voters seeing McDonnell as too conservative is now significantly higher than it had been.” (From 25 percent in August to 41 percent in September.)
· This movement comes despite the fact that less than half of those polled have any significant knowledge of the thesis. Only 46 percent of voters had significant knowledge of the thesis, yet there was a dramatic swing towards Deeds, and significant number of people who see McDonnell as too conservative. This validates that McDonnell’s record is as much of a problem for him as his thesis.
· Deeds has opened up a huge lead in Northern Virginia, after having been tied in the region last month. According to the Post, “In Northern Virginia, where statewide Democrats have been successful but Deeds was slow to win support, he now leads McDonnell, 57 to 40 percent, among likely voters. In the innermost Washington suburbs, Deeds leads 63 to 34 percent. A month ago, the two men were running about even in Northern Virginia.”
· Voters are strongly supporting Deeds’ approach to transportation. According to the Post, “McDonnell's focus on transportation has not won him supporters on the issue in congested Northern Virginia. Transportation ranks as the second-most important issue in the region, and Deeds has a 49 to 36 percent advantage as the one voters trust to deal with it. A month ago, McDonnell and Deeds were roughly equal among likely voters in Northern Virginia on transportation.
The Post also interviewed a number of voters in focus groups and as part of their poll. Here are some key quotes from those interviews.
· "He's all those things they discovered in the thesis," said Ray Ellen, 62, a retired state employee from Fairfax County who responded to the poll. "McDonnell likes to change the subject frequently. . . . This guy has everybody fooled."
· Sally Amster, 59, of Annandale said: "I couldn't vote for someone who espouses his views. It's just too scary, what he would do."
· Ashli Suprise, 22, of Bristow said she would be watching for evidence that McDonnell's views had changed or grown more "mature" so he can "actually help the state rather than just start implementing . . . his ideas."
· Carol W. Beemer, 66, of Manassas said actions speak louder than words: "I don't care what you say you believe. What's your voting record? And I haven't seen that so far for either" candidate.
· But Jacqueline Watts, 48, of Woodbridge, a Deeds-leaning voter who considers herself a centrist, said the thesis didn't concern her as much as the evidence that McDonnell pursued some of the goals it outlined. "I've written extreme things [in] papers, just to get a rise out of the instructor," she said. "But after finding that he was actually following through on it -- now, that was the thing" that gave her pause.
· "I think he's scary and he's anti-female," said Jane D. Malik, 59, of Alexandria. "I would be very concerned about what he would do to women, against women. . . . And, granted, this is 20 years old. But I just can't imagine that everything in his heart has changed."
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To read more about how McDonnell's thesis is reflected in his record visit http://static.deedsforvirginia.com/SiteContent/Static/PDF/thefacts.pdf
To read about the Washington Post poll, visit http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/19/AR2009091902552.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2009091903197
To see the poll results, visit http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_092009.html?sid=ST2009091903197
To read about the Washington Post focus groups, visit http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/19/AR2009091902521.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2009092000210
To read about the latest Rasmussen Poll, visit http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/election_2009_virginia_governor_election