Tuesday, April 30, 2013

It's demographics, stupid!

Nice Stats Modeling from Jedi Data Master Nate Silver: tweak variables and smile. #gopfail ahead. @fivethirtyeight http://t.co/Vx20J04WJe

No future for angry old RWNJ men. 

Predictable.
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Original tweet:

@fivethirtyeight: How will demographic changes & immigration really affect the presidential vote? Our cool new interactive here: http://t.co/Vx20J04WJe

Sunday, March 3, 2013

Beyond Pareto: Dominating Elites vs The Vanishing Many

Vilfredo Pareto would be amazed. 80-20
Rule does not seem to apply in American economics today.
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@BlueRidgeDate: Beyond #Pareto. Incredible skew to the "elites" MT @OccupyWallStNYC: visualization of wealth inequality. https://t.co/ObViFCBtrp #Statistics
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The study of wealth inequality is not a new subject, how we choose to (re)act on this information is the challenge we face to maintain a stable society for the common good. An eternal conflict fought by each generation.

More on Pareto:

Sunday, February 17, 2013

US Manufacturing Reality vs Myths

Let's get real folks. Manufacturing still has a very important role in sustaining a robust American economy. We have said it time and time again, President Obama gets it. He's done more to support the strengthening of our Manufacturing sector since Eisenhower in the post WWII era, and JFK igniting the Race to the Moon in the 60's. BRD is looking forward to 4 more years of the President pounding this issue home. Pay attention civil servants and service sector folks, you need a strong US Manufacturing sector to pay your bills.

In a new article at the Washington Post, Ro Khanna dispels popular myths about US manufacturing.

Khanna, a deputy assistant secretary of commerce from 2009 to 2011, is the author of “Entrepreneurial Nation: Why Manufacturing Is Still Key to America’s Future.” 

  1. A manufacturing job is no longer a ticket to the middle class.

 There is no doubt that America’s manufacturing base has declined, peaking at 19.6 million jobs in 1979 and now at just over 11 million jobs. Despite this economic transition, however, U.S. manufacturing jobs are still worth having. On average, full-time manufacturing work pays 20 percent more than full-time service-sector jobs. ...

 2. We can outsource manufacturing as long as product design stays here. 

 Andy Grove, the former chief executive of Intel, has famously argued that the best innovation takes place when design teams are integrated with production teams. Product designers can get feedback about the practical constraints involved in manufacturing and can fine-tune their designs accordingly. Apple has said that it is investing $100 million in new U.S. plants — a move hailed as bringing manufacturing back to our shores. However, Apple has always done most of its prototype manufacturing in the United States. ...

 3. U.S. manufacturing can’t compete with China. 

 Over the past decade, the growth of Chinese manufacturing has exceeded America’s, so for the first time, China has taken the lead in global manufacturing. Yet, for all the hype about the BRIC economies — Brazil, Russia, India and China — the United States remains neck-and-neck with China in manufacturing output, and we still far outstrip such traditional powerhouses as Japan and Germany. ...  U.S. manufacturing workers are almost six times as productive as Chinese workers and 11/2 times as productive as those in Japan and Germany. ...

 4. Manufacturing jobs are repetitive and low-skilled. 

 If you think of manufacturing as a tedious job with no intellectual stimulation, you haven’t visited a U.S. factory floor lately. Whether making steel bars or suits for firefighters, many of today’s manufacturing jobs require the ability to operate complex machines, math skills and an understanding of how to maximize efficiency. ...

 5. Government is terrible at supporting manufacturing. 


America has long had a bipartisan consensus favoring government support for private manufacturers. In 1791, Alexander Hamilton argued that the nation should provide incentives and assistance to manufacturers to compete in the world economy. Even Thomas Jefferson came around to the view that government has a stake in building domestic manufacturing. ... Herbert Hoover ... provided financial support for the aviation industry. Ronald Reagan supported ... semiconductor industry. Of course, America’s free-enterprise system is what enables our manufacturers to be the most innovative. No one is suggesting that the government pick winners or losers. Some bets on new companies, such as Solyndra, are bound to fail. But such failures should not deter the government from investing in DARPA, a strategic agency at the Defense Department, or ARPA-E, a strategic agency at the Energy Department, which can propel innovation, new technologies and new industries. We also must help keep manufacturers at home through tax incentives, attract immigrants and better prepare a skilled workforce. And we must continue the collaboration between government and business that helped make America an economic superpower. 

 Full article at WashPo

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Correlation: Gun Violence vs Gun Ownership

A statistical comparison of gun ownership rates vs gun related deaths.
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"The US clearly has the most gun violence and the most guns.  I have fit a linear regression through this data (Adj. R2 = 0.47), and if we think the linear relationship is reasonable to begin with, we could begin to think about why some countries are above the line and others are below the line (for example, the US is considerably above the line, and thus it appear that US citizens not only have more guns per capita, they also have a harder time keeping their guns pointed away from other people compared to  many other countries)."

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Full article:


Monday, December 17, 2012

New Video: The NRA Circus of Fear

" The NRA Circus of Fear, also known as: S*** Wayne LaPierre Says. It features multiple clips of NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre at his fear mongering best. "We have nothing to fear but the absence of fear," he announces to kick the two-minute video off, and from there on it is a bizarre collection of NRA paranoia and conspiracy theory highlights."

www.meetthenra.com
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