Marrow's Fieldwork Yields Results in 25th

25th HD District Map

Results from June 9th , 2009 Democratic Primary - 25th HoD

Greg Marrow's campaign fieldwork paid off. Results from the June 9th Democratic primary for the nomination of a candidate to run against Delegate Steve Landes for the 25th House of Delegates seat, show that where Marrow and his team focused their modest resources, they got statistically significant results.

Concentrated efforts in several Albermarle precincts, which have been historical supportive of Democrats, resulted in a nearly 80% vote for Marrow. This was followed closely by a 73% results in Waynesboro city, where Marrow's folks had a solid canvassing, phone banking and poll worker effort. Marrow won by narrower margins in Augusta and Rockingham Counties. Some precinct-by-precinct data parsing suggests that there was likely a bit of coin-flipping in the minds of some rural county voters, where results showed a nearly 50-50 split, appearing to be a random event rather than an informed choice. Where there was a significant effort to post yard signs for Marrow, those precincts went more strongly for Marrow.

While the percentage of active voter turn-out was only in the 3 to 7% range (actually pretty decent for a Va. primary), statistical sampling geeks like us, love the "data set". It gives us a little peek, statistically speaking, into the minds of voters - albeit Democratic ones. It does demonstrate that in our little corner of the Shenandoah Valley, hard work pays off.

Marrow's campaign has gained some valuable field experience and political intelligence on the opposition in the 25thHD battle-space, that bodes well for Marrow's looming head-on challenge of the entrenched incumbent Landes, who has had no Democratic challengers since taking office in 1996.

In 2009, difficult local economic conditions and palpable voter unrest -- should make for a spirited campaign in the 25th.

Dr. Greg Marrow interview with NBC29

Creigh Deeds: Don't Stop Believing!

Charlottesville - Omni Hotel - Creigh Deeds did it. His fundamental blocking & tackling style of grass-roots politics got the job done. Down-state political pro, Deeds, took the lion's share of the undecided with a going away victory with nearly 50% of votes in the three-way race for the Democratic Governor nomination, leaving 26% for McAuliffe and 24% for Moran (99.8% precincts reporting).

To the delight of supporters, rocking out to Don't Stop by Fleetwood Mac, Creigh Deeds lit up the room with his short speech reflecting on his own American success story, another improbable journey, for a kid from modest means. Only in the United States of America. Amazing.

Final primary prep post - Dr. Greg Marrow on call!

Senator Mark Warner and Dr. Greg Marrow
-- on call and ready to serve --

ELECT GREG MARROW ON JUNE 9th
Democratic Nominee for 25th HoD

We need a Doctor in the House (of Delegates)!

Go Big Mike - Finish Strong!

opening shot - Staunton & Augusta County Democratic HQ - Signer sign plant!

GO MIKE -- ADAPT, PERSEVERE , PREVAIL!

Multi-Poll Time Series - Deeds has the trajectory to win

Similar to the time series data plots used by Nate Silver at 538.com in 2008, this multi-poll plot from Pollster.com tells the the same story we saw in the closing days of the Presidential election last November. Obama had a sustained upward trend in poll results, that carried through to 11/4. The momentum bodes well for Deeds, he will likely get the lion's share of the undecided at this point.

It is unlikely that the undecided will split with equal probability for each candidate. Better polling pundits than I, and poli-sci research says, the general tendency of late deciders is to go with the flow (apparent leader) and cling to safety (of the least risky choice)-- both of these behaviors favor Deeds.

Like Obama -- he has the trajectory to win.

Mike Signer - Bolling Bottled Up

from Star City Harbinger...

Signer addressed the nagging issue of campaign spending in this primary. “Moran, Deeds and McAuliffe have spent about $20 million combined,” he noted. “I believe the Wagner campaign and ours have spent around a million and a half.” Signer argues that small meetings like the one this morning are what will take him over the top on Tuesday. He spoke about the efforts of one of his local supporters who sent out personal emails to hundreds of his friends in support of the campaign.

“That is what it takes to win,” Signer claims. “It isn’t just about money.”

...

One supporter asked Signer how he will help the Democratic nominee for the governor’s race on June 10th if he wins on Tuesday: “My campaign has Bolling bottled up already . . . I’m more than happy to play the attack dog if I have to."