Saturday, November 8, 2008

The Big Picture 2 - Red, Blue, Purple? - Results by County

click map to enlarge
2008 US Presidential Election - Results by County
Blue=Democrat, Red=Republican



click map to enlarge
2008 US Presidential Election - Results by County
Shades of Purple=Voter Percentage x Party
Solid Blue=Dems, Deep Purple=Lean Dem, Blueish Purple=Close Spilt,
Redish Purple=Lean Repub, Solid Red=Repub



From Physics Prof Mark Newman at University of Michigan (Go Big Ten!), some very interesting demographic mapping of the results of the 2008 Presidential Election. The first map shows the counties across America that went Democrat or Republican, with a basic Blue or Red shading. But it gets much more interesting when you see the second map with shades of a purple color scale, used to show degree of voter leanings.

Note the overall "purpleness" of the United States of America.

A Deep Purple America?

O beautiful, for spacious skies,
For amber waves of grain,
For purple mountain majesties
Above the fruited plain!
America! America! God shed His grace on thee,
And crown thy good with brotherhood, from sea to shining sea.
First Verse, America the Beautiful
UPDATE 1: 9:30am, Stay tuned here for cartogram versions showing total EV and PV weightings and resulting shape-bending maps.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

The Big Picture - Blue Tide Rising 1980-2008


source: Daily Kos

This is a good big picture view of where we've been and where we're headed politically, as a nation. BRD likes to see data in time-series. The steady rise in Democratic voters is clearly evident. The fluctuation in Republican vote may be a reflection of independent and moderate voting that wavers, based on election issues, rather than firmly held idealogical views. Based on this long view of the electorate, it is reasonable to argue that we may be actually trending towards a left-of-center nation. This is aligns better with the population mega-trends in the American electorate; more urbanization, and increasing diversity along racial and ethnic demographics. The Southern Strategy will likely be less and less effective for the GOP in the next decade.

From Daily Kos post:

"Now that Barack Obama has won, Republicans have settled on a weird new talking point: the election results, they say, demonstrate that America is a "center right" nation. But as is typical with the GOP, their claim isn't reality-based. Consider:

  1. Democrats have won the popular vote in 4 of the last 5 presidential elections.
  2. Democrats have won the presidency in 3 of the last 5 presidential elections.
  3. Democrats have increased their popular vote total in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections ... while Republicans have done so in just 3 elections, staying flat once, and dropping 3 times."

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Augusta County, Staunton & Waynesboro - Election Results x Precinct





Source: News Leader

Full local election results analysis at Augusta Free Press:

Obama won Virginia by 93,000 votes out of nearly 3.3 million votes cast, with 1,695,035 votes to 1,602,395 votes for Republican John McCain. The margin was 50.9 percent to 48.1 percent. An analysis by The Augusta Free Press shows that 11,000 votes of the working margin for Obama came from increased Democratic voter turnout in the Central Shenandoah Valley - in Staunton, Waynesboro and Augusta County and Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. McCain won those areas by a combined vote total of 61,758 votes to 37,790 votes, winning the counties handily while Obama won majorities in Harrisonburg and Staunton and improved 10 percentage points while falling in Waynesboro. Republican George W. Bush won the region in 2004 by a combined vote total of 60,899 votes to 25,616 votes for Democrat John Kerry, meaning McCain improved on the Bush ‘04 vote total by less than 1,000 votes while Obama improved on the Kerry ‘04 vote total by 12,000 votes.
Comments from Tom Long, Augusta County Democratic Committee Chairman:

Yesterday, the hard and smart work of our great candidates; the Augusta County Democratic Committee; the Obama, Warner, and Rasoul campaigns; and YOU helped paint over some of the old, peeling red and turn Augusta County a little more Blue. A little evidence:

In the last two presidential elections, Augusta County averaged about 25% for the Democratic candidates. Barack Obama received nearly 30% of the Augusta County vote. Had we settled for 25% again, Barack Obama would have received over 1300 fewer votes in Augusta County. In a statewide race that we all knew would be close, those votes are important. We delivered.

At last Sunday's luncheon with Mark Warner, he told Cliff and I how tough he knew Augusta County is for a Democrat and asked, "can you get me 40%?" We responded that we were shooting for 50%. We didn't quite achieve that, but we did better than Senator-elect Warner asked - he got almost 47% of Augusta County votes!

Sam Rasoul fell short in his bid to unseat a well-funded and well-known incumbent. Sam ran a principled and issues oriented campaign and forced his opponent to talk to voters. Judging by the barrage of TV and radio ads, Goodlatte must have been feeling Sam gaining on him daily. We are proud of you, Sam!


Augusta County, Staunton & Waynesboro - Election Results Summary

Election results
Last Updated: November 04, 2008, 11:36 PM

President: Augusta
Precincts: 26 Number Reporting: 26 (100.00%)
John McCain R 23,111 (70.18%)
Barack Obama D 9,821 (29.82%)

President: Staunton
Precincts: 6 Number Reporting: 6 (100.00%)
Barack Obama D 5,570 (51.11%)
John McCain R 5,328 (48.89%)

President: Waynesboro
Precincts: 5 Number Reporting: 5 (100.00%)
John McCain R 4,815 (55.22%)
Barack Obama D 3,905 (44.78%)

Senate: Augusta
Precincts: 26 Number Reporting: 26 (100.00%)
Jim Gilmore R 16,743 (52.82%)
Mark Warner D 14,957 (47.18%)

Senate: Staunton
Precincts: 6 Number Reporting: 6 (100.00%)
Mark Warner D 6,896 (65.36%)
Jim Gilmore R 3,654 (34.64%)

Senate: Waynesboro
Precincts: 5 Number Reporting: 5 (100.00%)
Mark Warner D 5,038 (58.67%)
Jim Gilmore R 3,549 (41.33%)

House: Augusta County
Precincts: 26 Number Reporting: 26 (100.00%)
Bob Goodlatte R 23,242 (73.24%)
Sam Rasoul D 8,490 (26.76%)

House: Staunton
Precincts: 6 Number Reporting: 6 (100.00%)
Bob Goodlatte R 5,703 (53.64%)
Sam Rasoul D 4,929 (46.36%)

House: Waynesboro
Precincts: 5 Number Reporting: 5 (100.00%)
Bob Goodlatte R 4,982 (58.67%)
Sam Rasoul D 3,510 (41.33%)

The end of Tyranny - King George (Bush) - 11/5/08



A tribute to everyone that made this possible, to those who stood up and said, Yes We Can!

THESE are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value.
Thomas Paine, 1776, The American Crisis

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

The Longest Day - November 4, 2008

Election Day
November 4, 2008
Special Diary

11:54pm - Done Deal. forecast 338-156 EV. VIRGINIA TURNS BLUE!!! Great celebration at SWJ Hotel! A roomful of ecstatic Democrats! (photos to come later)

President Elect Barack Obama to speak to the nation at 12 mid-night from Grant Park in Chicago!


202 - NEW HOPE!
(District 06)

Last Reported: Nov 4 2008 7:54PM EST

It's not huge... but we moved the ball... 2.1% more votes for the Democrats... finally some progress in my lifetime!

Barack Obama and Joe Biden 338 26.42% (Kerry 297 24.3% - 2004)
John McCain and Sarah Palin 923 72.16% (Bush 902 73.9% - 2004)
Chuck Baldwin and Darrell L. Castle 2 0.15%
Bob Barr and Wayne A. Root 4 0.31%
Cynthia McKinney and Rosa Clemente 1 0.07%
Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez 8 0.62%
Write In 3 0.23%


1:00PM - 917 total voters ( ~ 55% of active registered voters) Mid-day visit to New Hope over lunch hour. Steady light rain now. Our very own New Hope political pro, Frank Nolen (former State Senator), has covered the late morning poll watch. More banter with the Republican greeters, including my next door neighbor. Yikes! Clearly my large Obama-Biden, Warner and Rasoul field signs have been an irritation for some in this strongly Republican area. We do our best "to agree, to disagree" on life in America after Obama is elected. Not sure ... but I think I sense some anxiety or fear from these folks. I try to re-assure to no avail. Maybe the grieving process for a McCain defeat has already begun. I am way too worried, and humble to assume anything, at this point. Too many Penn State football games have turned badly in the final 2 minutes of the 4th quarter. No pre-mature celebration on my part!

7:30AM - End of my first shift at New Hope precinct. Got our signs up by 5:40am. Unusually high turn-out at 6am. About 60 folks waiting in line for doors to open -- that's 4% of all active voters in the precinct! Shared partisan greeter space with a good friend, Paul, from the other team. Mostly staunch Republicans here, but all are good friends and neighbors. Got some knowing winks and nods from folks supporting the Blue team. Feels great to be finally get the voting underway. The poll staff is very organized. Whole voting process was smooth and done quickly. No problems here in New Hope. Weather: Overcast, cool, intermittent rain/drizzle. Great experience! Looking forward to heading back after work to take last shift ending at 7pm.

4:39AM - Dressed, quick breakfast, last minute yard sign work, then off to New Hope polling station at the New Hope United Methodist Church to put up yard signs, VOTE and hand out sample ballots. Poll opens at 6AM.

3:35AM - Last Obama Rally Manassas, VA = 90,000+

Obama Speech Highlights:

"Let me start by noting that this is our last rally, Virginia. We've been doing this for nearly two years. We've gone to every corner of this country,­ from here in Northern Virginia to the rocky coast of Maine; from the open plains of Texas to the open skies of Montana. And I just want to say that whatever happens tomorrow, I have been deeply humbled by this journey. You have welcomed Michelle and me into your homes. You have shared your stories of struggle. And you've spoken of your dreams. Along the way, in talking with all of you about your own lives, you have enriched mine. You have moved me. You have inspired me. And you have filled me with
new hope for our future. In the places I've gone and the people I've met, I have been struck again and again by the fundamental decency, and generosity, and dignity of men and women who work hard without complaint to meet their responsibilities every day."


3:12AM - Put up first post on News Leader. Fired Up and Ready to go!


Last Polling Data Modeling Prediction from FiveThirtyEight.com

2:53AM - Awake and up before alarm clock rings at 3AM. Dogs out. Coffee on. Get results from Dixville Notch, NH: Obama Wins! Good Omen.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Monday Morning Scoreboard: Obama PV & EV Victory Still Likely




click to enlarge charts

Sources: Political Arithmetik, Pollster.com, FiveThirtyEight.com

On this final Monday before election day 2008, Barack Obama appears headed to a commanding win in both the Electoral Vote (EV) and the Popular Vote (PV).

Charles Franklin's time-series plots of polling results from 2000 and 2004, with final PV margin versus 2008 polling data, pretty well tells the complete story. It is safe to say, Obama has sustained a strong lead over John McCain to the end, that that has a statistically significant difference, when compared to Gore's run in 2000, and Kerry's run in 2004. Even if McCain gets all the the remaining undecided votes, a very unlikely scenario as discussed previously, Obama should still have a safe margin of victory.

In the end, it appears that... "It's still the economy, stupid, and a very unpopular President."

Attracting the Schwing Vote in Virginia



Wayne: "She's a babe."
Garth: "She's a mega-babe."
Wayne: "She's from Babe-alon. She's Babe-alonian."
Garth: "She's Babealicious...SCHWING!"

Mike Meyers (Wayne) and Dana Carvey (Garth)
“Wayne’s World” – Saturday Night Live





Republicans in Augusta County, Virginia have been working hard to sustain a rise in base enthusiasm for the McCain-Palin ticket. As a by-product of the full-out promotion of Sarah Palin, they are also attracting what can best be described as, the “Hooters” vote, from male voters. It all started with blue and white, 4 foot by 8 foot field signs stating, "I Am Voting For The Chick" being planted outside local businesses in September. Smaller yard signs have sprouted up in next to McCain-Palin signs across the county, in Staunton and Waynesboro, and beyond. Local Republicans say that they have helped deliver more than 600 of the signs and have had sign orders from as far away as Florida and Alaska. The larger signs seem to be the most popular with male small business owners.



Seems like the tag, Caribou Barbie, works for some guys. A local outdoor sporting goods store is prominently displaying a Chick field sign along with "Sportsmen for McCain-Palin" signs. Palin’s physical attributes, and her Alaskan hunting and fishing credentials, makes her a very popular gal with hunters and fishermen. Palin has become an object of desire for some younger guys, too. At the national level, it should have been no surprise that after the “hot governor” hype surrounding her nomination, the internet domain name “VPILF.com” was quickly registered. Explaining the meaning of MILF and VPILF is best left to the reader to discover.




Stalwart Augusta County Republican women, see no offense in using the “chick” label for Palin.
In an interview with a local newspaper, Local Republican activist/blogger, Lynn “SWAC Girl” Mitchell, said
“… the reason behind the sign's popularity is simply Palin's appeal to many Republicans in the area. "They just love Sarah Palin," she said. "And this is just a way for them to express how much they support this woman." However, not all reaction to the signs has been positive. Mitchell said she has heard negative comments from just a handful of people and some of the signs have been vandalized, such as when the word 'not' was inserted in the phrase on one of the larger signs. Mitchell said she does not believe the sign's use of the word, "chick," is being used negatively or in a sexist manner. "It is meant in a respectful way, which is reflected in the number of women that want these signs," she said. "I mean, I'm a chick and I don't mind." McCain-Palin spokeswoman Gail Gitcho said the signs are not campaign-issued or approved. While she said it goes to show the strong support Palin has in the Valley, she downplayed the importance the signs bring.”

Of course other local folks are scratching their heads over the tone-deafness of local Republicans. Roger Watson, President & Publisher of the News Leader in Staunton, Virginia commented in his blog,
“If Barack Obama said in a debate or in a political speech something like, "John McCain and that Chick want to raise your taxes," it would be an international incident. I have no doubt that he would be roundly criticized by feminists, all Republicans and probably even Hillary Clinton. Hillary would put a chokehold on anyone who called her a chick. It might cost Obama the election and would certainly be parallel to George Allen's Macaca moment.
But local Palin supporters put signs in their yard calling the potential vice president a "chick." Those same people would probably be offended if their wife was called a chick by somebody. I would be offended if somebody I didn't know called my wife a chick. She might like it. I don't know. But I wouldn't.”

Local physician, Elizabeth Pinkston, MD (News Leader, 11/2/08) adds her reaction,
“… as a woman and medical professional, I believe that the term "chick" is insulting to any woman, whether Republican or Democrat. From my experience, "chick" is a term used mostly by men to refer to a woman who is defined more by her appearance and social interactions than by her accomplishments. Despite my belief that Sarah Palin is out of her league and not qualified to take over the presidency of the United States at a moment's notice, she is a successful woman who deserves more than being referred to as a “Chick “.

The Chick sign phenomena is one more example of the widely divergent views in the on-going American culture clash, being fully aired in the final days of this presidential campaign. The so-called Republican base would appear to be conflicted over the family-values version of Palin, versus the hot babe version that appeals to the boys, young and old. Sarah’s special assets are clearly of political interest to a 72 year-old former Navy pilot named, John McCain, who’s had more than his share of beautiful women in his life.


Local Democratic headquarters, have seen a steady flow of self-identified Republican women, looking for Obama-Biden campaign materials. This is probably a leading indicator, signaling that many women of a certain age, who have spent a lifetime striving to reduce these stereo-typical labels, see the Chick label as one that diminishes their standing in the workplace. This local political campaign sign issue is not likely to get much attention beyond this traditionally conservative area. But BRD thinks this may be another small Macaca moment, for Virginia Republicans.

Women voters, of all ages, will have their say on this issue on Tuesday.

cross-posted: Huffington Post