Bush Legacy Tour Scares Waynesboro VA

Just in time for Halloween... the Bush Legacy Tour visits Waynesboro, Virginia.




Augusta Free Press video, includes yours truly, yikes, now that's scary!

Bradley/Wilder Effect: Data Says No Large Hidden Bias

click chart to enlarge

Source: Political Arithmetik

Is there statistical evidence of the much-discussed Bradley (Wilder) Effect in this year's presidential race?

According to U of Wisconsin Poli Sci prof Charles Franklin at Political Arithmetik, the answer appears to be... No.

..." I model the vote choice for those who expressed a preference with a model using a variety of attitudes and demographics, including favorability to Obama and McCain, party id, marital status, kids at home, education, race, age, sex, church attendance, region and urban, suburban or rural residence. Then I added the racial attitude responses from the "black excuse" question. To check against people hiding their feelings by refusing to answer the "black excuse" question I also included a variable to capture the effect of refusal to answer.

This model produces a predicted probability of voting for McCain or Obama, including predicted probabilities for those who had said they were undecided or who refused to respond to the vote question. From this we can estimate the likely vote of undecided, and compare the estimates to the responses of those who gave a vote preference in the survey." ...

... "Bottom line: Undecided and refuse to say voters are estimated to break 50% for McCain and 50% for Obama. As even as it gets. There is no evidence here of a large bias towards McCain that is hidden within the undecided respondents.

Nor is there evidence of a pronounced racial bias among these undecided voters as compared to the public at large. Among the undecided 27% strongly agree and 32% somewhat agree on the "black excuse" item. For the public as a whole 26% and 32% give the corresponding responses." ...

Obama Rally - Harrisonburg Slide Show & Video

Barack Obama - Harrisonburg, VA
James Madison University
10/28/08

Audio & Photos WMRA

photos & full video from Staunton News Leader:






Barack packs the house.... approx. 8000 and then some...

Over-capacity crowd. 10,000+ wait in line for over 4 hours. Line control and public info a bit disorganized by JMU staff... but give them credit for pulling it off, on very short notice. Local Dems are delighted!

Very cold, windy, cloudy! BRRRRRRR!

Long lines... many old friends and made some new ones, too. Young, old, all races, rich, poor, many education levels, all walks of life. Impressed by the diverse demographics of the Obama supporters. All there for one reason -- each person determined to see this once in a lifetime, Campaign for Change, achieve our shared final goal... in just one week. Awesome and damn glad to be there.

Barack makes special outdoor appearance at UREC soccer field for the 1000+ hardy, cold souls unlikely to get into the JMU Convo. The Secret Service detail and security convoy was a ballet-in-motion. Sen. Obama's sudden outdoor appearance, was very carefully managed -- a testament to these hyper-effective, focused security professionals. Well Done... to the entire security team: Feds, State, County, City and Campus.



Overflow crowd attended satellite viewing sites in Godwin Hall and Festival Ballroom.

Token rally by local Republicans, largely ignored, slightly entertaining. No harsh words, that I saw, exchanged. Virginians might be a bit more cordial, than folks in Pottsville, PA at recent McCain Rally. Yikes!



As the sun sets ... Barack's jet is ready and waiting, at the Shenandoah Valley Airport in Weyers Cave. A crowd of about fifty folks wait in the twilight changing to dusk... chanting Obama, Obama, Obama!

A Virginia State Trooper in special ops gear, carefully scans the crowd, and exchanges a bit of light banter with the mellow crowd, on a crisp cold night in Valley of Virginia. He says he looks forward to some rest and relaxation, after the stress of this long campaign. Agreed and well-deserved, Trooper!

cross-posted: Daily Kos, Cobalt 6 , Huffington Post

Monday Morning Scoreboard: Multi-Poll Forecast Says Obama by 5.9%

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

With 8 days till Election Day, we are seeing a very tight pattern of recent polling data points (low variance), centered around +7% favoring Obama, with individual polls ranging from max 9% to min 4%. Nate Silver's multi-poll exponentially-weighted regression model, is predicting a 5.9% popular vote win for Barack Obama.

But the story really gets bleak for John McCain, when you look at the FiveThirtyEight.com forecast of Electoral Votes. Nate's discrete event simulation model is indicating the probability of an Obama victory at 96.7%.


More troubling for McCain and Republicans in general, is the defection of moderate Republicans, with a slew of endorsements from significant players from the Red Team: Colin Powell, Scott Mclelan, William Weld, Doug Kmeic, Freid, David Frum, David Brooks, Chris Buckley, Ken Adelman, George Will, Peggy Noonan, et. al.

Voices are rising for a "Stop Loss" on spending for McCain-Palin, and re-focusing Republican resources on the many highly contested congressional races.

The Obama campaign is taking nothing for granted. The massive GOTV effort in key battleground states is seeing a flood of re-energized Obama volunteers, major political figures are working the local GOTV efforts for Obama, and major ad buys will run till 11/4, to reinforce the talking points of the Campaign for Change.


Team Obama is not going with a conservative "run out the clock" strategy, they are keeping the "first stringers" on the field and playing to score, till time runs out on Tuesday night, November 4th.

Grizzled warrior, John McCain, to his credit, will fight on to the end of this historic contest. Ingenue Sarah Palin is likely seeing the advantage of her efforts in energizing the far-right-wing Republicans, maybe betting the come in 2012 and beyond. The initial skirmishes of a Republican Party Civil War have already begun.

It will be all over, but the crying, soon enough.

Penn State Beating Michigan...

Oct 18, 2008: My Penn State Nittany Lions finally beating the Michigan Wolverines after 9 frustrating years... deeply satisfying



October 25, 2008: Penn State beating Ohio State at the "Horseshoe", Ohio Stadium; first time since 1978 ... fantastic



October 28, 2008: Barack Obama leading in polls in VA, the Staunton News Leader endorses Obama, the Obama/Biden team's relentless ground game in Old Dominion rolls on, and Barack is scheduled to speak nearby in Harrisonburg, at the Convo at James Madison University ... PRICELESS!