Saturday, April 26, 2008

Will Goodlatte Be COOL?


[cross-posted @ Star City Harbinger]

Do you know where the over-the-counter medicines, prescription drugs, and foods you consume everyday are made? You should, it could be a matter of life and death. You should have the right-to-know and the freedom to make informed choices regarding product purchases for your family.

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WEDNESDAY, April 23 (HealthDay News) -- U.S. researchers say they've confirmed that lots of the blood thinner heparin pulled from the market are contaminated with a man-made chemical called oversulfated chondroitin sulfate.

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All the preparations linked with adverse reactions contained a contaminant similar to chemically synthesized OSCS, the researchers said. According to the FDA, contaminated heparin has now been linked to as many as 81 deaths and hundreds of injuries in United States.

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Raw heparin is derived from pig intestines, and it's often processed by small, unregistered mom-and-pop workshops in China. Heparin is used for certain types of surgery to prevent blood clots. Kidney patients also take it before undergoing dialysis.

Oversulfated chondroitin sulfate mimics heparin's qualities and is a modified form of chondroitin sulfate. Chondroitin sulfate is a naturally occurring substance made from animal cartilage and is often used in supplements to treat arthritic joints. But, oversulfated chondroitin sulfate is man-made and doesn't occur naturally.


FULL ARTICLE
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Congress Takes Action
Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., began hearings this week (4/24) to review drafts of the Food and Drug Administration Globalization Act 2008. Hearings on Drug and Medical Device provisions will continue on May 1st.

An important part of the legislation will be expanded product identification requirements for the food, drug and medical device industries. Rep. Dingell, chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, has said consumers deserve to know where their purchases come from.

Adverse food and drug events: contaminated pet foods and contaminated toothpaste in 2007, and now the recent deaths in the U.S. due to the contaminated blood thinner, Heparin; have all been linked to incorrect/improper use of raw materials produced in China. This has generated a renewed effort in Congress to address the shortcomings of FDA regulations for the global food and drug industry. The United States imports more than $2 trillion worth of food, drugs and medical products from more than 150 countries.


Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., says consumers have a right to know where the products they use are produced. "How are you going to know what is in there or whether it's safe if you don't know where it comes from?" Dingell asked. "For example, if it comes from Great Britain, you're going to assume it's pretty safe. If it comes from Canada, it's probably pretty safe. If it comes from China, you're going to say, 'Holy cats, we better watch out.'"

In order to get this dangerous situation under-control, and begin to restore consumer confidence, lawmakers want to make sure everyone has adequate information to know the country where their food and drugs are made and be assured that the FDA has verified that companies are regularly inspected and certified to be in compliance withh U.S. quality regulations and safety standards.

Being C.O.O.L.
Leaders of the House Energy and Commerce Committee proposed on April 17, 2008, that all food and drug product will be required to have Country Of Origin Labeling (COOL).


• Drug labels will have to identify the source of a medicine's active ingredient and its location of manufacture.

• Labels for all medical devices will have to show country of origin.

• In addition to the same labeling requirements as drugs and medical devices, food manufacturers of all kinds, must identify on their corporate web site where each ingredient in a particular food product originated.



What about Bob?
Now this is where we in the 6th District,

and Rep. Bob Goodlatte come in…

Rep. Goodlatte has a history of favoring producers over consumers. To be fair, his position against mandatory COOL requirements, have been primarily directed at supporting the American Meat Industry, especially during his term as House Agriculture Committee Chairman. His bias for a pro-industry stance versus consumer risk minimization, appears to be fundamentally grounded in his concern for the cost impact on the producer side. His statement in 2005, regarding his proposed voluntary Country of Origin Labeling (V-COOL) for meat products, may be an indication of the strength of his support for more robust standards for mandatory COOL , to adequately regulate the safe global production of all food, drugs and medical devices.

“…I have always favored a voluntary approach and the legislation (V-COOL 2005) we are introducing will replace the current mandatory system, with its potential for creating another layer of regulatory and business cost, with a voluntary program,” said Goodlatte. “This approach benefits consumers and producers and is preferable to a mandatory program that is more likely to hurt the people it was intended to help.”

In the quality control profession, this problem is often referred to as, the balancing of producer’s risk versus the consumer’s risk. It is pretty clear that the producers interests are being well-protected. So you and your family would be wise to follow the old Latin adage, “Caveat emptor!” or “Buyer Beware!”.

Hopefully Rep. Goodlatte will re-balance his support towards consumers on this issue.

We’ll have to wait and see.

Progress Possible
Fortunately, the lame-duck Bush Administration has given tacit support, and food and drug industry lobbyists have been relatively muted in their resistance to making progress on this critical legislative issue. Republicans, may finally be feeling the pressure of the November elections looming on the horizon. Many years of increased off-shoring and de-regulation has clearly benefited corporate profits and short-term consumer costs. Now, we may be seeing other significant longer-term costs (risks), that all consumers will pay for, as a result of the de-regulated, free-market trade policies of the past 16 years.



Learn More & Take Action
Consumers can gain some insights into the sourcing of drugs by using a variety on on-line medical reference databases. Or just “google” the medicine name and description. You may have to go to specific pharmaceutical company web sites to drill down to find plant locations.

Then you can apply some of that “free-market corrective action " that Republicans seem to favor, don’t buy products from sources that are suspect, until you have objective evidence that these product are reliably safe.

DailyMed NIH.gov

FDA Main Site

Drugs.com



Learn More about COOL and the new FDA Globalization Act of 2008,

Read more about May 1st hearing:
House Energy & Commerce Committee

Listen to May 1st Hearing:
Connect to the Audio Webcast (56 kbps)

Take Action - If your concerned about the quality and safety of the food and drugs used by your family, it is important to let your representative in Congress know how you feel.

Contact Rep. Bob Goodlatte. Let him know your concerns regarding his support of forthcoming legislation.

Write:
10 Franklin Road, SE Suite 540
Roanoke, VA 24011

Call: (540) 857-2672

FAX: (540) 857-2675

Email Bob Goodlatte

Friday, April 25, 2008

BRD "Hearts" Economists

Two Nobel Prize Economists Recommend Obama

Joseph Stiglitz, who was connected to the Clinton presidency and a 2001 prize winner, said that Obama's speech 3 weeks ago on the economy was brilliant. He also said that the deregulation of the markets during Clinton's presidency was a mistake and the markets need to be re-regulated.

Edmund Phelps, 2006 prize winner, agreed. We need a new way of looking at the economy and Obama is the one that can do that. We do not need the thinking of the past.

Read full DailyKos Post

Paul Volker has officially endorsed Obama, and also John Bogle who changed from Repub to Dem to vote for Obama.

No bounce from PA ... HRC campaign just isn't getting any traction with big name endorsements.

Obama continues to attract the Big "Money" Players...

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Speaking of Beer...




Promoting democracy one pint at a time.
245 chapters in 46 states plus DC.

Is it time for a chapter "serving" Rockbridge, Augusta & Rockingham area?

click link to explore the idea

DRINKING LIBERALLY

[And remember: as you drink liberally, always drink responsibly.]

How Bizarre! Ron Paul?

Pennsylvania
2008 General Primary
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Unofficial Returns
*** 9,212 out of 9,264 Districts (99.44%) Reporting Statewide ***

REPUBLICAN RESULTS

HUCKABEE, MIKE (REP)
89,957
11.4%

MCCAIN, JOHN (REP)
575,543
72.7%

PAUL, RON (REP)
125,705
15.9%


Those Ron Paul yard signs we saw in Central PA were a "harbinger" for John McCain.

BRD thinks some of these folks might drift over to Obama in the GE.

Revised PA Primary Margin Drops to 9.2%

Pennsylavnia
2008 General Primary
Tuesday, April 22, 2008

4/23/08 3:45pm
Unofficial Returns PA SOS
*** 9,212 out of 9,264 Districts (99.44%) Reporting Statewide ***


CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)
1,237,696
54.6%

OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)
1,029,672
45.4%

Total= 2,267,368

Margin = 208,024 9.2%

CLINTON WINS PA by Predicted Margin

STATE WIDE PA: CLINTON 55% vs. 45% OBAMA

Pretty Darn Close Prediction Model...

The BRD regression plots of Clinton Lead and an approximately 50/50 split of Undecided appears to be born out in final results.

5.4% Clinton Lead Estimate + 1/2 (8% Undecided) = 9.4% victory margin


Also noted, Centre County, home of Penn State University did go Obama in a big way. So maybe yard signs, college education and beer drinking are good election forecasting variables, after all?

Centre County

CLINTON
9,404 40%

OBAMA
14,170 60%

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Today's Quote - Obama > PA < Clinton

A countryman between two lawyers is like a fish between two cats.

Ben Franklin

Final Data Crunch – PA Primary

Final Data Crunch – PA Primary
4/22/08

(also posted @ Star City Harbinger.com)

Using polling data beginning in January 2008, I did one final pass at boiling all the data down to some underlying trend lines for Clinton vs. Obama lead and Undecided Voters, with projected results for today, 4/22/08.

With obvious wide variation in polling results, based on simple linear regression, the predicted preference lead for Clinton is 5.4%. Note the wide scatter of data points, each one was a separate poll.






Source: Polling Data from Real Clear Politics.com, April 21, 2008





Even more interesting was the tightening of the Undecided Voter data. The rapidly changing and clear compression of the undecided polling results suggested a fit with higher order regression model. An exponential regression seemed to show the best fit with the data.



Source: Polling Data from Real Clear Politics.com, April 21, 2008


So this all boils down to how the undecided, 8%, will split their vote. If all undecided voters go for Obama, it is statistically possible that he could win Pennsylvania. More probable, Clinton and Obama will spilt the undecided vote, likely predicting a close win for Clinton.

In the end, these are all just small samples from the large population of likely PA Primary voters. There is a chance for a significant swing due to sampling error (usually driven by small sample sizes), but the averaging of many different polls should give us a strong prediction on the final results. The time lag since the last primary, has given us a unique wealth of polling data. Clearly, this exciting campaign has become a neck and neck horse race.

See you at the Finish Line.

On the Road - Keystone Primary

On the Road - Keystone Primary
(also posted @ Star City Harbinger.com)
4/21/08

State College, PA - No guns, no religion, and no xenophobia... the weapon of choice was a football, the only ideology was the House of JoePa, nobody was a stranger, and all were welcome. The only bitterness might have been day-old beer on Sunday morning.

Using the pretense of doing a story for SCH about the looming presidential primary in Pennsylvania, I once again convinced my wife that I had to make my annual trek to State College, Pennsylvania for the Spring inter-squad football game at my alma mater, Penn State University. The Blue & White game is one of the most sacred of PSU pilgrimages, it is mandatory for the faithful of Nittany Lion Nation. Along the way, I was committed to sample, measure, collect, count, record and tabulate observable evidence of the political leanings of Pennsylvanians prior to the much anticipated Democratic Primary on April 22. Here are a few of my observations and notes from road, you can draw your own conclusions.

Yard Signs
April 18, 2008
As I left I81, to journey along the back roads of central Pennsylvania, I was presented with my first data collection opportunity - yard signs. What a great physical marker for the political sentiment of individual voters. I think it is interesting evidence of a committed voter. So from Greencastle to State College, I counted campaign yard signs along the road. The route took me through a good random sample of small towns. Greencastle, Mercersburg, McConnellsburg, Burnt Cabins, Shade Gap, Orbisonia, Mt. Union, Huntingdon and finally State College. 102 miles in total. Sign count: Obama 13, Clinton 4, McCain 0 and Ron Paul 7.





Possible conclusions: 1.) Obama is swaying small town Democrats or he has the money and organization to get the most signs placed. 2.) John McCain has no visible presence in the political landscape of central PA. 3.) Watch out for Ron Paul fans, they don't appear to care for McCain, Obama or Clinton. Which way will they break in November?

The House That Joe Built - Politics and Football
April 19, 2008
On a beautiful Spring day in "Happy Valley", over 73,000 Penn State fans had gathered for this Rite of Spring at Beaver Stadium. Before the game, the competing political camps staked out strategic tailgate locations. Most visible was the Obama camp, close by the stadium. Joe Paterno's son Jay, Nittany Lion QB coach, was instrumental in drawing a crowd with numerous PSU alums, now NFL players.


House of JoePa - Beaver Stadium






Blue & White game 2008



Beer, Bar-B-Q & Barack (and Hillary, too)
Tailgating started early Saturday morning. The jovial crowd of students, alumni and loyal fans enjoyed the sunshine, a variety of beverages and good food. It was clear that hard-nosed national and PA politics took a back seat to enjoying a beautiful spring day watching hard-nosed football. Casual conversation about the upcoming primary was in the background chatter at most tailgates. First hand discussions with several tailgaters indicated a potential close race, at least within this largest of "beer drinking" demographics, which was supported by recent polling data.

Since this crowd of 73,000+ was mostly students, college graduates, and Penn State faculty and staffers ... it was a strong fit with the Obama base of support. Not to be totally side-lined, there were numerous vocal supporters at Hillary and McCain tailgates, as well. One Clinton supporter, Liz Larsen, Penn State staff member and 1979 graduate, said that she had been favoring Hillary, but she was being heavily influenced by her teen-aged daughter, who is a strong Obama supporter. Larsen felt that Clinton represented the best and brightest of her generation of women, who all wanted to see the iconic glass-ceiling of the Presidency, shattered once and for all. However, as a mother, she is encouraged by the groundswell of support that she is seeing in her daughter’s generation for the Obama campaign. She summed up her dilemma by saying she will likely be "undecided" until she enters the voting booth on Tuesday.







Again, Obama yard signs were more prominent than Hillary signs.

Win - Place - Show Results
April 20, 2008
Hillary Clinton completed the presidential campaign Penn State campus trifecta, when she drew a crowd of 1500 on Sunday, April 20th. She was preceded by Bill Clinton who drew an estimated crowd of 6100 on March 27th. Barack Obama drew a record Penn State presidential campaign crowd of approximately 20,000 on March 30th. Clinton campaign staff claimed weather and tired tailgaters were the cause of the low turnout Sunday night.


The Long Ride Home - One Small Town, One Data Point

April 20, 2008
On rainy Sunday afternoon, I made the long drive back to the Shenandoah Valley. I came across a hand-painted sign at the base of the town water tower, in Orbisonia. It seemed to sum up what is in the back of most people's minds, as we face-down a historic decision in November. No matter your political preference, we as a Nation, are not forgetting those of us who have sacrificed the most in the last seven years.



Tuesday, April 22, will take us one step closer to a critical turning point in our way forward as a nation.