Saturday, July 11, 2009

Don't need no science... right-wing logic?


h/t from CobaltVA Only 6% of Scientists are Republican

A recent polls show that, to believe in the Scientific Method, has become a predictor for political tendencies. Selective bias in accepting or rejecting valid scientific findings is highly correlated to right-wing politics. It appears the Republican Party now strictly follows the tenets of religious fundamentalism, R-wing shamanism, and the voodoo logic of The World According to the Church of FoxNewsCorp.

Seems to explain the irrational behavior and twisted logic on the Right.

Americans value science, but not all of it


CHICAGO (Reuters) - Many Americans still value the nation's scientific achievements, but unlike most scientists, they often pick and choose which scientific findings they agree with, especially in the areas of climate change and evolution, according to a survey released on Thursday.

The survey found nearly 9 in 10 scientists accept the idea of evolution by natural selection, but just a third of the public does. And while 84 percent of scientists say the Earth is getting warmer because of human activity, less than half of the public agrees with that.


In the bizarro world of the right-wing, there isn't much room for scientific thinking. A conservative scientist is certainly a "rare bird", indeed.

If folks can't process high school math and science, the only alternative is to turn to tribal knowledge and religion to explain the complex world in which they live.

Science is not about being comfortable and complacent in an idealized unchanging world. It is about experimentation, educated-risk taking, trial & error learning, seeking new knowledge, deeper understanding and adapting to our changing world. The data says what is says. Accept and use, or disregard and ignore, the data -- your choice -- but the world we live in will continue to act according to the Laws of Science, now and long after we are gone.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

My blood runs cold...

My blood runs cold
My memory has just been sold

My angel is the centerfold
Angel is the centerfold

from Centerfold, 1982, J. Giles Band

Cold Data Reality. My idealized image of health care reform seems to have been sold to the highest bidder.

Obama in the WH, Democrats with a formidable majority in Congress, this time ... real health care reform is highly probable event ... right? Well maybe not.

Money talks and progressive wishes walk.

The gathering battle over health care reform has some statistically dissonant aspects. While public polling data shows strong support for a public option, political insider intelligence indicates that Congressional committee work is shying away from support of the public option.

Some recent data analysis by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com tells the story-behind-the-story.

Special Interest Money Means Longer Odds for Public Option

This is less about GOP intransigence, it is more about the power of money.

"... health care is one of those areas where both popular opinion and sound public policy seem to take a backseat to protecting those stakeholders who benefit from the status quo. But can we actually see -- statistically -- the impact of lobbying by the insurance industry on the prospects for health care reform? I believe that the answer is yes."

"The model employed is a standard logistic regression with these three variables: ideology, lobbying and health care costs. Ideology is statistically significant at the 99th percent level, PAC contributions at the 95th percent level, and health care costs -- senators in states with more health care spending are more likely to support the public option -- at the 90th percent level. The R-squared for the model is .61, which means that these three variables alone give us 61 percent of the information that we need to predict a senator's position on the public option. The model guessed the senator's position correctly in 87 out of 99 instances."

[...]

In other words, the insurance industry's influence appears to swing about 9 votes against the public option. Whatever number of senators wind up supporting the public option, add 9 to it, and you'll have a decent ballpark estimate for what the level of support might be if not for insurance industry contributions. Note, however, that we haven't attempted to model the impact of contributions from other interest groups, including both pro-health reform organizations such as labor unions or other stakeholders like pharmaceutical companies.
Politics is all about influence and persuasion. Money speaks loudly. It will take a much more powerful grassroots effort to sway moderate Democrats in Congress. Public opinion polls are not enough. Coming after the exciting Democratic victories in 2008, this is a reality check of how things work in the real world of Congressional politics.

It's okay I understand
This ain't no never-never land
I hope that when this issue's gone
I'll see you when your clothes are on

There is always a measurable consequence for political actions ... the naked truth often hurts.