My blood runs cold...

My blood runs cold
My memory has just been sold
My angel is the centerfold
Angel is the centerfold
from Centerfold, 1982, J. Giles Band

Cold Data Reality. My idealized image of health care reform seems to have been sold to the highest bidder.

Obama in the WH, Democrats with a formidable majority in Congress, this time ... real health care reform is highly probable event ... right? Well maybe not.

Money talks and progressive wishes walk.

The gathering battle over health care reform has some statistically dissonant aspects. While public polling data shows strong support for a public option, political insider intelligence indicates that Congressional committee work is shying away from support of the public option.

Some recent data analysis by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com tells the story-behind-the-story.

Special Interest Money Means Longer Odds for Public Option

This is less about GOP intransigence, it is more about the power of money.

"... health care is one of those areas where both popular opinion and sound public policy seem to take a backseat to protecting those stakeholders who benefit from the status quo. But can we actually see -- statistically -- the impact of lobbying by the insurance industry on the prospects for health care reform? I believe that the answer is yes."

"The model employed is a standard logistic regression with these three variables: ideology, lobbying and health care costs. Ideology is statistically significant at the 99th percent level, PAC contributions at the 95th percent level, and health care costs -- senators in states with more health care spending are more likely to support the public option -- at the 90th percent level. The R-squared for the model is .61, which means that these three variables alone give us 61 percent of the information that we need to predict a senator's position on the public option. The model guessed the senator's position correctly in 87 out of 99 instances."

[...]

In other words, the insurance industry's influence appears to swing about 9 votes against the public option. Whatever number of senators wind up supporting the public option, add 9 to it, and you'll have a decent ballpark estimate for what the level of support might be if not for insurance industry contributions. Note, however, that we haven't attempted to model the impact of contributions from other interest groups, including both pro-health reform organizations such as labor unions or other stakeholders like pharmaceutical companies.

Politics is all about influence and persuasion. Money speaks loudly. It will take a much more powerful grassroots effort to sway moderate Democrats in Congress. Public opinion polls are not enough. Coming after the exciting Democratic victories in 2008, this is a reality check of how things work in the real world of Congressional politics.

It's okay I understand
This ain't no never-never land
I hope that when this issue's gone
I'll see you when your clothes are on

There is always a measurable consequence for political actions ... the naked truth often hurts.

WARNER, DEEDS ANNOUNCE: "BUSINESS LEADERS FOR DEEDS"

The Deeds campaign is letting no moss grow under their feet in these lazy days of summer...

At a mid-day media event, earlier today in NoVa, US Senator Mark Warner pulled out some big guns from the Virginia business community, in a powerful show of support for Creigh Deeds, from a sector that has traditionally been seen as a solidly Republican base. Not so much anymore. After successive pro-biz Warner and Kaine administrations, Warner's popularity is clearly evident in his sustained clout with many in the commercial and industrial business sectors. The Warner pro-biz coat-tails are now carrying over to Deeds. Chris Graham at the Augusta Free Press covered the subsequent tele-conference.

Graham's commentary and audio recording of the presser can be found here at the Augusta Free Press

***************

DEEDS PRESS RELEASE

DEEDS ANNOUNCES “BUSINESS LEADERS FOR DEEDS”

~ U.S. Senator Mark Warner helps launch bipartisan group ~

~ To be led by Caps owner, ex-AOL executive Ted Leonsis ~

ARLINGTON -- Democratic candidate for governor Creigh Deeds today announced the formation and leadership of “Business Leaders for Deeds,” a broad-based group of bipartisan, statewide business leaders who have agreed to advise and promote Deeds’ candidacy. “Business Leaders for Deeds” will be led by Ted Leonsis of McLean, the majority owner of the Washington Capitals and Washington Mystics. Leonsis also is a former AOL vice chairman, a venture capitalist and philanthropist. U.S. Senator Mark R. Warner joined Deeds and Leonsis at today’s announcement. Warner is a former telecom executive who’s pragmatic approach during his term as Virginia Governor (2002-06) resulted in Virginia’s designation as the nation’s “best managed state” and “best state for business.”

“I appreciate the support and the expertise these business executives will bring to our effort, because these men and women recognize that their businesses are only as strong as the people who power them,” Senator Deeds said. “Our administration will be working hard every day to create opportunity and jobs for Virginians, and these business leaders will be a key part of our bipartisan efforts to better position the Commonwealth to emerge stronger from our economic challenges.”

“I am impressed by Creigh’s focus on quality education, technology and innovation as the cornerstones of Virginia’s economic future,” Mr. Leonsis said. “’Business Leaders for Deeds’ will bring together leading executives from across the state to advise Creigh during the campaign – and, more importantly, after his election this fall.”

“I have known and worked closely with many of these community and business leaders, and I appreciate their willingness to step-up and support Creigh’s bipartisan focus on producing real results that move Virginia forward,” Senator Warner said. “We cannot leave any region of Virginia behind as we work together to strengthen our economy and position the Commonwealth to compete in this global economy.”

Other members of “Business Leaders for Deeds” so far include: Douglas M. Adams of Maiden, Retired President of The Country Vintner, Inc.; Jane Inskeep Barrell of Culpeper; Co-Owner of Culpeper Management, LLC; Robert M. Blue of Richmond, Senior Vice President of Public Policy & Corporate Communications for Dominion Corporation; The Honorable Sandra Bowen of Richmond, former Senior Vice President of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, former Virginia Secretary of Administration and Commonwealth; William M. Camp, Jr. of Franklin, principal of Holliknoll Farm; James K. Candler of Lynchburg, Chairman of Candler Oil Company, Inc.; Judith P. Carter of Orange, Principal of Germanna Title Company; Laurie C. Crigler of Madison, Vice President of L&D Associates, Inc.; Edward C. Dalrymple of Mineral, Vice President of Chemung Contracting; Charlotte B. Dammann of McLean, Associate Broker of Faulconer Realtors Inc.; Joseph R. Daniel of Culpeper, President of Jefferson Homebuilders; Joshua P. Darden, Jr., of Norfolk, President of Darden Properties Inc.; Carlos Del Toro of Stafford, President & CEO of SBG Technology Solutions, Inc.; Susan Y. “Syd” Dorsey of Mechanicsville, Director of Sales & Marketing at Astyra Corporation; G.S. “Sandy” Fitz-Hugh, Jr., former President of the Bank of America – Virginia; David Goode of Norfolk, former Chairman, President and CEO of Norfolk Southern Corporation; Mark Goodwin of Richmond, former Senior Vice President of UPS Freight; William C. Hall, Jr. of Richmond, Vice President of Corporate Communications & Community Affairs for Dominion Corporation; Robert D. Hardie of Charlottesville, Managing Director of Level One Partners, LLC; Cabell S. Harris of Richmond, President of WORK Labs; Jimmy Hazel of Oakton, principal of Angler Environmental; John T. “Til” Hazel, Jr. of Broad Run, founder and former chairman of the Virginia Business Higher Education Council; William R. Hedrick of Bluefield, President of Fort Chiswell Construction Corporation; Ted Hontz of Stafford, Vice President of Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.; Kenneth Jones of Richmond, Owner and President of Prestige Construction Company; James L. Keen of Vansant, CEO of Keen H.R. Services, Inc.; Austin Ligon of Richmond, co-founder and retired CEO of CarMax Inc.; Mark C. Lowham of McLean, Senior Vice President of WEST*GROUP; Charles H. Majors of Danville, President & CEO of American National Bank & Trust Company; John F. Malbon of Virginia Beach, CEO of Papco, Inc.; Mark R. Merhige of Richmond, President of Shockoe Properties; Bittle Porterfield, III of Roanoke, President of Rice Management Company; Richard S. “Major” Reynolds III of Richmond, Managing Director of Reynolds Trust; Gilbert “Gil” Rosenthal of Richmond, retired owner of Standard Drug Company; Tom Rosenthal of Richmond, CEO of Med Outcomes, Inc.; Walter Rugaber of Meadows of Dan, former President and Publisher of The Roanoke Times; The Honorable Elliot Schewel of Lynchburg, Former President of Schewel Furniture Company and former State Senator; Ranjit K. Sen of Richmond, President & CEO of CXI; R. Chris Walters of Abingdon, financial advisor; Naomi Weathers of Chester, Owner and President of Weathers Engineering Inc.; Blair K. Williamson of Charlottesville, President of S.L. Williamson Company, Inc.; Alan S. Witt of Newport News, CEO of Witt Mares, PLC; Linda Zecher of Charlottesville, Corporate Vice President, Worldwide Public Sector of Microsoft Corporation. # # #