Saturday, February 21, 2009

GOP Fails Math Test... again


1 + 1 = -3 ... Doh!!!

It's one thing to oppose the "Stim" based on well-reasoned political grounds ... but it's another "there they go again" exercise in Republican Big Lie propaganda to use bogus mathematics in an attempt to cast their Bizarro World Republican Stimulus Plan, as a better alternative, to the hard-fought, compromise plan that President Obama recently signed into law. The new stimulus package had solid support from economists and main-stream business leaders. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act , was enacted within the first 30 days of the new Obama administration, without any visible means of support from the GOP.

It is really a lame bozoian attempt, to use fake math and undisciplined economic analysis to claim their plan has a higher probability of success and stronger efficacy. Boooguuus!

TPM had previously de-bunked this sad display of bogosity...

As we've pointed out, this claim is based on some very questionable math -- it involves reversing prior calculations about what a tax increase would do, and declaring the mirror image to be true for a tax cut, and also ignores the fact that the current deflationary crisis involves different fundamental economic assumptions than usual.

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"the Romer analysis used by the GOP ... never examined the effects of tax cuts on a deflationary economy -- it looked at the effects of tax increases on the economy as a whole and found a negative effect of 2.2% - 3% on GDP.

The Republican analysis simply flipped those numbers to positive and applied them to the GOP-backed tax cuts, then multiplied the result by a broad job creation estimate used in a recent paper from Romer and Jared Bernstein, an economic adviser to the vice president. If you read the Republicans' document, you can see the caution advised in assuming that 6.2 million jobs would be created by their plan."


Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Only 1/3 of Americans Want to Help Automakers



click to enlarge chart
From Rasmussen Reports:

It's quickly becoming every-man-for-himself in this economic downturn.
Recent polling data is showing that Americans are becoming increasingly reluctant to extend another helping hand to the Big Three Automakers. Predictably Republicans are saying let them fail, over 3/4 (77%) of Republicans and over 2/3 (68%) of Independents oppose additional loans to GM and Chrysler, while Democrats are split 50-50 on further loans.
Not considering party affiliation,
Forty-four percent (44%) say it is better for the U.S. economy to let companies like General Motors fail than for the federal government to provide subsidies that will keep them in business. Thirty-three percent (33%) say subsidies are the better way to go, and 23% are not sure.
While Americans recognize the importance of a strong industrial base, because the current downturn is so wide-spread, it seems that voters are growing weary of the endemic problems that face the Big Three. There is little public faith in the senior management of GM or Chrysler. Even investors are spilt nearly 50-50 on letting them go to failure.

Evidence is mounting that the tipping point has been reached, this system will probably go to failure.

All appear to agree that failure is a better option than having the Federal Government take on a primary oversight or senior management role. We seem to think that we have enough challenges on our collective plate, right now. We will have to use some triage thinking to optimize results from the scarce resources at hand in our current crisis. The good news here is that we have some folks in charge now, that can apply some evidence-based decision making. Only in our worst dreams can we imagine what is would have been like with another W clone in the White House. Yikes!


Hopefully out of this massive organizational death, a new American automotive industry will emerge, or more likely following the patterns of other old-school American industries like steel and consumer appliance/electronics, we will see a systemic take-over of these brands/assets by large Asian and European companies.

The social cost to America ... remains to be fully understood and calculated.

Natural Selection: The cycle of life ... it is a brutal process.