Larry Sabato Says Crystal Ball Favors Obama in VA

Graphic Source: UVa Center for Politics

Larry Sabato at UVa's Center for Politics provides a situational report on the presidential campaign in Virginia.

".... by far the most significant is VIRGINIA, which we are moving from pure toss-up to LEANS OBAMA.

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The reasons are clear: Bush, the disastrous economy, the demographic growth of Northern Virginia and its strong Democratic tilt, the momentum built up by recent Democratic victories (Mark Warner in 2001 and soon 2008, Tim Kaine in 2005, and Jim Webb in 2006), and the remarkable voter registration and voter contact efforts of a literal army of Obama staffers and volunteers in the state for a full year.

But it is more than that. The McCain campaign and the state GOP appear to have had a death wish. McCain's staff refused to believe Virginia was truly competitive for too long, and the McCain-Palin visits were few. McCain's brother called Northern Virginians "Commies" and one of McCain's most prominent spokespersons said they were not the "real Virginia." Generally, it is difficult to win the votes of people you are insulting.

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The Virginia Republican party is also completely outclassed by the state's Democrats in money and organization.

They insist on running too far to the right, as though this were the Virginia of the Old South. It's not selling anymore.

We'll see whether changes in the last dozen days alter this picture. Virginia is still close. It is not absolutely a done deal for Obama yet.

cross-posted: Star City Harbinger

If the Valley is Lost...Virginia is Lost!

Credit: Jim McCloskey - News Leader - Staunton, VA

Campaign news from the Shenandoah Valley, part of the "Real Virginia". Sometimes pictures say it better than numbers.

Growing Doubts: McCain's Judgment, Age and Behavior

More bad news for John McCain... from Pew Research

Growing Doubts About McCain's Judgment, Age and
Campaign Conduct

Obama's Lead Widens: 52%-38%

Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has steadily increased since mid-September, when the race was essentially even. Shortly after the first presidential debate on Sept. 26, Obama moved to a 49% to 42% lead; that margin inched up to 50% to 40% in a poll taken just after the second debate. Currently, Obama enjoys his widest margin yet over McCain among registered voters, at 52% to 38%. When the sample of voters is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 39%.

Monday Morning Scoreboard - 15 days to go, Obama Lead 7%

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

With 15 days of campaigning to go, Barack Obama is holding on to about a 7% lead in the race for the White House. More importantly, the EV prediction model at FiveThirtyEight.com is showing a strong probability of an Obama win, at a likelihood of 93%.

With the third debate now behind us, the voters' preferences appear to be hardening. The percentage of undecided voters is trending down, latest data indicates it is settling in at approximately 5%.

The remaining Undecided voters are unlikely to break overwhelmingly for either candidate, at this late date. Nate Silver's model is predicting about a 5% popular vote margin for Obama.







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