Graphic Source: UVa Center for Politics
Larry Sabato at UVa's Center for Politics provides a situational report on the presidential campaign in Virginia.
".... by far the most significant is VIRGINIA, which we are moving from pure toss-up to LEANS OBAMA.
The reasons are clear: Bush, the disastrous economy, the demographic growth of Northern Virginia and its strong Democratic tilt, the momentum built up by recent Democratic victories (Mark Warner in 2001 and soon 2008, Tim Kaine in 2005, and Jim Webb in 2006), and the remarkable voter registration and voter contact efforts of a literal army of Obama staffers and volunteers in the state for a full year.
But it is more than that. The McCain campaign and the state GOP appear to have had a death wish. McCain's staff refused to believe Virginia was truly competitive for too long, and the McCain-Palin visits were few. McCain's brother called Northern Virginians "Commies" and one of McCain's most prominent spokespersons said they were not the "real Virginia." Generally, it is difficult to win the votes of people you are insulting.
The Virginia Republican party is also completely outclassed by the state's Democrats in money and organization.
They insist on running too far to the right, as though this were the Virginia of the Old South. It's not selling anymore.
We'll see whether changes in the last dozen days alter this picture. Virginia is still close. It is not absolutely a done deal for Obama yet.
cross-posted: Star City Harbinger