
source: Daily Kos
This is a good big picture view of where we've been and where we're headed politically, as a nation. BRD likes to see data in time-series. The steady rise in Democratic voters is clearly evident. The fluctuation in Republican vote may be a reflection of independent and moderate voting that wavers, based on election issues, rather than firmly held idealogical views. Based on this long view of the electorate, it is reasonable to argue that we may be actually trending towards a left-of-center nation. This is aligns better with the population mega-trends in the American electorate; more urbanization, and increasing diversity along racial and ethnic demographics. The Southern Strategy will likely be less and less effective for the GOP in the next decade.
From Daily Kos post:
"Now that Barack Obama has won, Republicans have settled on a weird new talking point: the election results, they say, demonstrate that America is a "center right" nation. But as is typical with the GOP, their claim isn't reality-based. Consider:
- Democrats have won the popular vote in 4 of the last 5 presidential elections.
- Democrats have won the presidency in 3 of the last 5 presidential elections.
- Democrats have increased their popular vote total in 7 of the last 7 presidential elections ... while Republicans have done so in just 3 elections, staying flat once, and dropping 3 times."
2 comments:
Very interesting graph.
I wonder if it's sustainable.
Of course, no one knows the future, but I can't help but wonder what the electorate will look like in 4 years, or in 8.
If you're interested, I made a few graphs of my own for Harrisonburg: http://hburgnews.com/2008/11/05/analysis-after-the-partys-over/
Adam Sharp also has some good analysis: http://hburgnews.com/2008/11/06/long-time-to-write-post/
Interesting stuff. If BHO can keep young people engaged and avoid major disappointments, I would expect the trend to continue. Consider also that the Palin wing of the GOP is already talking about purging moderates, who may find a home in the DP big tent.
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